APAR Industries Limited

APARINDS

Qtr Score Rank 33 / 57 (Top 44 percentile)Growth Score Rank 37 / 51 (Top 29 percentile)

Quarterly Score

Trend: Improving
Strong improvement - Recent 3Q avg 8.40 vs 4Q avg 7.45 (+0.95)

Showing the latest 12 quarterly points (newest to oldest).

Score context (latest 12 quarters)

Q1 FY2025
7.8

Management maintained a growth outlook for FY25 with conductor volume growth expected at 10-15% and Cables value growth targeted at ~25%. High-margin product mix is expected to sustain EBITDA/MT and EBITDA/KL levels despite competitive pressures.

Quarter summary

  • Export shipments were severely impacted from mid-June onwards due to container shortages and freight spikes, resulting in ~₹270 crores of revenue being deferred to subsequent quarters.
  • Strategic shift in product mix is accelerating, with premium products now making up 37.1% of conductor revenue and 41% of the order book, offsetting volume volatility in conventional segments.

Rationale

  • Resilient profitability despite significant logistics headwinds: EBITDA grew 6.8% YoY to ₹394 Cr, with Conductor EBITDA/MT reaching a strong ₹38,532/tonne due to an improved mix of premium products like HTLS and AL-59.
  • Significant domestic outperformance (+43.4% YoY revenue) and Transformer Oil volume growth (+20% YoY) indicate strong market share gains and alignment with India's aggressive grid expansion (116,490 MVA substation capacity target for FY25).
Q2 FY2025
9.0

Strong visibility provided through 2030 based on National Grid targets ('One Nation, One Grid'); capacity for CTC is being quadrupled by Jan 2025 to meet surging demand for 400kV+ transformers and renewable evacuation.

Quarter summary

  • Strategic pivot from volume-led growth to solution-led value creation, targeting higher wallet share (up to 30%) in the transformer and renewable energy value chains.
  • Rapid scaling of the specialty cables division to address the 'China Plus One' manufacturing shift and domestic infrastructure (Vande Bharat, Bullet Train, and offshore wind) requirements.

Rationale

  • Aggressive capacity expansion in high-margin segments: The company doubled its Copper Transpose Conductors (CTC) capacity and is on track to double it again by Jan 2025, representing a 4x total capacity increase to capture the 25% value share CTC holds in modern transformers.
  • Structural tailwinds from global energy transition: APAR is positioned as a primary beneficiary of India's grid expansion, where transformation capacity is projected to grow 35% from 12.5 lakh MVA to 17 lakh MVA by 2030, and global grid investments are scaling toward $275B+ annually.
Q3 FY2025
4.8

Maintained Conductor EBITDA/MT guidance of ~₹28,500 (long-term average); targeting 25% YoY revenue growth in the Cables division with expectations of US recovery in Q4 FY25.

Quarter summary

  • Strategic pivot toward domestic infrastructure (T&D, Renewables, and Railways) to offset export volatility and Red Sea logistical challenges.
  • Signs of a bottoming-out in the U.S. market with sequential recovery in cable billing (+8.5% QoQ) and ongoing utility-level approval processes.

Rationale

  • Material margin compression: EBITDA declined 7.1% YoY and PAT fell 19.7% YoY despite a healthy 17.7% growth in consolidated revenue, reflecting a shift to lower-margin business.
  • Sharp deterioration in Conductor unit economics: EBITDA per MT plummeted to ₹29,593 from ₹41,500 in the prior year period (a 28.7% drop), primarily due to a lower mix of high-margin North American exports.
Q4 FY2025
8.2

Maintained 25% revenue growth guidance for the Cable division; targeting ₹10,000 Cr capacity in Cables by FY27 through the ₹800 Cr greenfield expansion.

Quarter summary

  • Strong turnaround in the US market with a 195.6% YoY increase in US business revenue, driven by order execution for energy transition and data center infrastructure.
  • Aggressive capacity expansion strategy to capture the domestic power demand peak (388 GW by 2031) and the government's ₹4.9 lakh Cr green energy grid investment.

Rationale

  • Achieved record quarterly revenue of ₹5,210 Cr (+16.9% YoY) and all-time high FY25 revenue of ₹18,581 Cr (+15% YoY), showing strong execution across all three segments.
  • Announced a massive ₹1,300 Cr front-loaded capex plan for FY26-Q1FY27, specifically aimed at doubling cable capacity to ₹10,000 Cr and building a new JNPT storage terminal to optimize logistics for the Oil division.
Q1 FY2026
8.5

Management maintained a long-term Conductor EBITDA guidance of Rs 30,000/MT plus tailwinds. Capex guidance remains at Rs 1,300 Cr for the fiscal year. Strong visibility is provided by a combined pending order book of over Rs 9,430 Cr across Conductors and Cables.

Quarter summary

  • Substantial US export growth across Cables (+136% YoY) and Conductors (+83% YoY) driven by high demand and some customer 'pull-forward' of orders ahead of August 1st tariff changes.
  • Strong domestic tailwinds from India's renewable sector where power generation rose 24% in H1 2025, creating massive demand for specialty oils and high-efficiency conductors.

Rationale

  • Exceptional top-line and bottom-line growth with Revenue up 27.3% (Rs 5,104 Cr) and PAT up 30% (Rs 263 Cr) YoY, driven by strong domestic demand and US export acceleration.
  • The Conductor segment is outperforming significantly with EBITDA/MT of Rs 43,688, far exceeding the base guidance of Rs 30,000, supported by a premium product mix of 43.5% (up from 37.1% YoY).
Q2 FY2026
8.5

Management maintained Conductor EBITDA guidance at Rs. 30,000/MT and Cable margins at 10-12% for the medium term. They cautioned that Q3 FY26 will face 'pressure' on topline and profitability due to metal price spikes delaying orders and timing of revenue recognition for US exports.

Quarter summary

  • Strategic navigation of US Section 232 tariffs by leveraging the 'equalized' 50% duty on metal portions across all countries, reducing India's relative disadvantage.
  • Accelerated premiumization strategy in the Conductor segment and expansion into new geographies including Europe, Canada, and Latin America to diversify export risk.

Rationale

  • Exceptional financial trajectory with Q2 consolidated revenue growing 23.1% YoY (Rs. 5,715 Cr) and PAT growing 30% YoY (Rs. 252 Cr), marking the first time H1 revenue crossed Rs. 10,000 Cr.
  • Strong segment execution in Conductors with EBITDA/MT of Rs. 39,636, significantly exceeding the long-term guidance of Rs. 30,000/MT, driven by a premium product mix of 45.4% and high-margin US exports.
Q3 FY2026Latest
8.2

Management maintained a long-term EBITDA/MT guidance of INR 30,000+ for conductors. Targeting a return to double-digit volume growth in FY27 as transformer component shortages (bushings) resolve through imports and domestic capacity expansion. Q4 cable revenue is expected to recover based on the INR 500 Cr Q3 order inflow.

Quarter summary

  • Strategic pivot to domestic infrastructure demand successfully mitigated the 65% drop in U.S. cable revenues caused by Section 232 tariff implementation.
  • Significant premiumization of the portfolio is visible, with premium conductor mix rising from 37.4% to 44.2% YoY, protecting margins against commodity volatility.

Rationale

  • Resilient top-line growth with consolidated revenue up 16.2% YoY (INR 5,480 Cr) and 9M revenue up 22%, driven by a massive 30% surge in domestic revenue which offset a 11.2% decline in exports.
  • Superior unit economics in the Conductor segment with EBITDA per MT reaching INR 44,195, a 49% increase YoY, significantly outperforming the company's long-term guidance of INR 30,000+ due to a record premium product mix of 44.2%.

Future Growth Prospects

Growth score: 8.0Visibility: 75%Updated: 25 Feb 2026, 12:16 am

Catalysts (next 12-24 months)

Total triggers: 4Visible per view: 1 / 2 / 3Slides: 4

Swipe or use arrows to browse all triggers.

capexBy mid-FY27Impact: revenueQty: 10000 ₹ Cr

Cable Capacity Expansion at New Plant

Timeline

  • announcedFY25 · annual_report

    Our strategic investments exceeding I 500 Cr from FY 2020-21 to FY 2024-25 in advanced cable technologies

  • in progressFY25 · annual_report

    a new 66-acre plot is being fully developed

Show full timeline (6)
  • in progressJan-Mar Q3 FY26 · concall

    in the case of cables, the first phase of equipment are coming in the January-March quarter.

    First phase equipment arriving

  • in progressApr-Jun Q1 FY27 · concall

    the balance will all arrive in the April-June quarter.

    Balance equipment arriving

  • scaledMid FY27 · concall

    by the mid of FY'27, we'll pretty much have all the facilities up and running.

    All facilities up & running

  • commissionedJun 2026 · concall

    bulk of the commissioning, I would imagine, would be done by June of 2026.

    Bulk commissioning expected

Supporting evidence

Q2 FY26 · concall · We are also investing about Rs. 800 crores in cable division... So, bulk of the commissioning, I would imagine, would be done by June of 2026.

Show evidence (2)

FY27E · concall · by the mid of FY'27, we'll pretty much have all the facilities up and running.

capacityQ3 FY26 onwardsImpact: revenue, margin

Conductor Capacity & Bushing Supply

Timeline

  • scaledQ3 FY26 · annual_report

    increase our Continuous transpose conductor capacity by 3x, by Q3 FY26.

  • unknownnext week or so · concall

    government is actually making a concession for import of bushings, which will kick in very shortly within the next week or so.

    New import concession announced

Show full timeline (3)
  • in progress6 months' time · concall

    In the meantime, the bushings capacity in India is also getting increased. Several new plants and brownfield expansions in place. So in about 6 months' time, we expect that the domestic side will also

    Domestic capacity increase expected

Supporting evidence

FY25 · annual_report · We also have plans to increase our Continuous transpose conductor capacity by 3x, by Q3 FY26.

Show evidence (2)

Q3 FY26 · concall · the government is actually making a concession for import of bushings, which will kick in very shortly within the next week or so.

orderbookQ4 FY26 onwardsImpact: revenueQty: 500 ₹ Cr

US Export Business Recovery

Timeline

  • delayedAug-Sep Q2 FY26 · concall

    for almost two months... the order inflow had almost completely stopped because people were waiting and watching to see what would happen between the tariff situation.

    Order inflow stopped due to tariffs

  • unknownQ4 FY26 · concall

    You will see close to INR500 crores of revenue that will come into Q4 of this year.

    INR500 Cr revenue expected

Show full timeline (4)
  • unknownQ1 FY27 · concall

    depending on most of that will get then picked up in the first quarter of 2027.

    Additional business in Q1 FY27

  • unknownOct 2025 · concall

    We have seen a large intake come in at the end of through the Diwali, meaning the last week of October, early in the last 10 days, a whole spate of orders has come in from the U.S. market.

    New order inflow started

Supporting evidence

Q2 FY26 · concall · new order inflow has started in Q3 after a break of two months in Q2. The pace of orders is a little bit slower as customers try to size up the geopolitical situation and the tariff situation.

Show evidence (2)

Q4 FY26 · concall · You will see close to INR500 crores of revenue that will come into Q4 of this year.

regulatoryUnspecified (fine print awaited)Impact: revenue, marginQty: 5 %

EU Trade Deal (Cable & Conductor)

Timeline

  • announcedQ3 FY26 · concall

    We just heard of an EU trade deal, the details of which are the fine print and the exact BTN classification numbers are still awaited.

  • in progressNext couple of months · concall

    I mean we will be able to lay our hands on this and be able to answer some of these questions in a couple of months once data is more clearly available.

    More clarity on details

Supporting evidence

Q3 FY26 · concall · We just heard of an EU trade deal, the details of which are the fine print and the exact BTN classification numbers are still awaited.

Show evidence (2)

Q3 FY26 · concall · our expectation is that it would generally be favourable for both our Cable and Conductor business. About 5% of our revenues have been coming from there.

Variant perception

Non-consensus view
Consensus

Consensus might underappreciate APAR's resilience in domestic markets and its strategic focus on high-margin products (premium mix 44.2%) despite global headwinds. The market may overemphasize short-term US export dips (down 11.2% Q3) without fully factoring expected Q4 recovery and new order inflows (INR500 Cr for cables).

Upside
  • Reconductoring offers a cheaper and faster alternative to new lines, boosting demand irrespective of ROW issues.
Show more (1)
  • Management believes current US order inflow improvement might signal extension of IRA incentives beyond current deadlines.
Downside
  • New US cable orders, though increasing, are coming at slightly lower margins due to tariff adjustments.
Show more (1)
  • Persistent rise in commodity prices could lead more customers to postpone deliveries, delaying revenue recognition.
base case70% conf
Growth: 21.9

Quick takeaway

Domestic revenue grew 30% in Q3 FY26, driven by resilient product mix.

Risk watch: US tariff situation impacting Q3 exports (down 11.2% YoY).

Show details (2 drivers, 2 risks)

Drivers

  • Domestic revenue grew 30% in Q3 FY26, driven by resilient product mix.
  • Conductor order book strong at INR7,396 Cr, with 32% from exports.

Risks

  • US tariff situation impacting Q3 exports (down 11.2% YoY).
  • Delayed clearances and lack of transformer bushings slowing transmission line projects.
upside case60% conf
Growth: 25

Quick takeaway

Strong US export recovery in Q4 FY26 with INR500 Cr cable orders and IRA incentives.

Risk watch: Higher raw material prices delaying new orders from customers.

Show details (2 drivers, 2 risks)

Drivers

  • Strong US export recovery in Q4 FY26 with INR500 Cr cable orders and IRA incentives.
  • EU trade deal proving significantly favorable for both cable and conductor businesses.

Risks

  • Higher raw material prices delaying new orders from customers.
  • Slower-than-expected resolution of US tariff issues.
downside case30% conf

Quick takeaway

Escalation of geopolitical tensions impacting global trade and supply chains.

Risk watch: Continued need to reduce prices to secure US orders, impacting margins.

Show details (2 drivers, 2 risks)

Drivers

  • Escalation of geopolitical tensions impacting global trade and supply chains.
  • Prolonged delays in government project execution and right-of-way issues.

Risks

  • Continued need to reduce prices to secure US orders, impacting margins.
  • Intensified Chinese competition in non-US export markets.

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